The Longevity Imperative - Rethinking the Meaning of an Ageing Demographic
Readers of our blogs understand we are living through an historical first in transitioning to a globally ageing demographic. This development has been known by our Federal Government since the late 1980’s yet there has been minimal public discussion of it as an unfolding event and very little legislative or business change to anticipate its potential impacts.
If we are to believe the media and an enthusiasm of Federal Governments (of all persuasions) for high immigration rates then we are being myopically led to believe an anticipated ‘silver tsunami’ of older age people is going to negatively overwhelm our future national finances, economy, living standards and quality of life. This is why a recent book by Professor Andrew Scott, ‘The Longevity Imperative: Building a better Society for Healthier, Longer Lives’ is a welcome antidote to the narrative of ageing as a crisis.
His critical argument is we are missing the point when we think about ageing as a problem. Rather we should be celebrating that for many of us, but particularly younger generations, the opportunity to live to a ‘ripe old age’ is now a reality for almost everyone. How we use the opportunity of this ability to live for longer, for both personal enjoyment and public good, is the question we should be addressing at all levels of society. We are rapidly heading to a tipping point in managing age within the world. Either we can reinforce a view of ageing as a potential social disaster, or we can see the ability to live for longer as a powerful and positive opportunity. The choice is ours.
In fact, as Scott points out, our future world is not going to be an older world but an increasingly age diverse one with a more equal representation of age bands, if a UN study of population change within the US between 1933 and 2100 is to be replicated. This represents a very different way to understand the demographic change underway. The lack of urgency to engage in political, economic or social discussion around options to manage an ageing world according to Dr Joe Coughlin of the MIT Age Lab is because demography has a strategic ‘image problem’.
This problem contributes to people experiencing the phenomenon of change blindness where an individual’s selective attention to their immediate world leads to the missing of significant change which is fully in their view. Unlike our experience with the movement to renewable energy or adaption to AI, demography change does not have an event or a product launch to grab attention or engage our imagination. As demography trends slowly plays out over the longer-term, despite their lasting impact there is no compelling narrative around implications, opportunities or potential benefits. This encourages a reactive transactional response to population ageing as potential issues arise, rather than a more strategic, anticipatory shaping of the trend to harness the change.
Scott sees our current life longevity underpinned by two distinct revolutions. He describes the first longevity revolution as society tackling infant mortality. By way of example in the UK in 1965, the most common age of death was in the first year of life. Today the most common age to die is 87 years old. Global life expectancy is now 76 for women and 71 for men. This new world has been created by the collapse in death rates of the young.
The second longevity revolution we are now experiencing is declining mortality rates at the very highest ages. This revolution is assessed as more radical as the chances of now living to 100 are increased meaning how we think about the length of life is profoundly changed. Hence Scott’s argument about our need to rethink the nature of ageing.
His central point is that if a longevity agenda is not prioritised, countries will be trapped in a never-ending cycle of dealing with age-related issues based on norms, institutions and behaviours formed during the first longevity revolution which aren’t geared toward supporting longer lives. Scott argues a longevity society requires focusing not only on the old but preparing the young for the challenges they face ahead of them. Creating a longevity society is not only about adapting to the changing age structure of the population but also helping change how we age.
Some positive research examples are provided to help provide insights into the dividends of embracing a longevity mindset. In America if the 50 to 64 age group enjoyed similar employment rates to those between 45 and 49, 8 million workers would be added to the labour force (representing 5% of total employment), contributing $1.15 trillion to GDP each and every year. The emergence of a ‘silver economy’ idea is also gathering momentum with the rising number of cashed up older people looking to spend more. Currently, spending by the fifties and over contributes $45 trillion to global GDP with the older population identified as the world's largest and fastest growing ‘emerging market’.
Living for longer sounds exciting until the question of individual and collective affordability is factored into the equation. The affordability question at the individual level is more urgent given a major analysis of 6 major economies reveals currently the typical individual is on course to outlive their savings by between 8 and 20 years. Scott states the challenge for financing a longer life at a personal level is how to maintain our earning capacity for longer.
Unsurprisingly, Scott understands for the majority longer lives will require longer working careers. Two strategies are identified to address the likelihood of having to work for longer. Investment in ones ‘human capital’ through a willingness to embrace life-long learning is presented as a major initiative to remain productive and employed. This approach is as relevant today as it will be tomorrow, so nothing too surprising in its presentation. The second is the personal discipline of prioritising our health at every age to slow down the biological ageing process.
Scott argues actively taking ownership for managing our personal health is fundamental to increasing a healthy life expectancy creating the opportunity to work and live for longer. The younger we think about healthy ageing the better. His premise is that we think about ageing in pure and simple terms about health. If ageing is about a gradual decline in health, then the higher level of health we give our future selves the better. This he argues puts a premium on investing in preventative health management earlier on to reduce reliance on the more traditional interventionist approach to managing health decline issues as we get older. The priority is maximising wellness and reducing the potential for illness. This is another example of common sense thinking and hard to argue against.
Moving to a national level, increasing our lifetime productivity is identified as fundamental in helping government finance people living longer. This will require investing in technology, health, education and institutional reform with a particular focus on the second half of life. In generating institutional reform, three distinct sets of government policies are identified: increasing the retirement age, raising the proportion of people working in the years running up to retirement and boosting the productivity of older workers.
Adopting a longevity frame to manage the ageing process Scott argues requires a huge social, medical and economic transformation. For nations with the courage to embrace the opportunity the transformation will be disruptive, long and expensive. However, the counter argument is by doing nothing managing an ageing population becomes increasingly unsustainable. Scott identifies a number of thorny challenges accompanying any transformation including:
· Transitioning our health system from one primarily focused on individual health care to one with an emphasis on public health management.
· Reviewing the purpose of a government- funded pension to ensure both its sustainability and equity.
· Avoiding the rise of ‘gerontocracy’ where older people hold the levers of power which they use to protect their own interests.
· Tackling a broken housing market so housing is affordable for the young and not just an asset for the old.
· Eliminating the continual growth in ageism as the number of older people increases. Age discrimination in the US is currently estimated to be costing employers around $850 billion annually. Two actions required to tackle ageism include:
o Recognising historically formed stereotypes surrounding ageing are now wildly out of date in failing to recognise the diversity with which people age.
o Organisations dedicating policies to support older workers as they become a more significant proportion of the workforce. This will require them to become more active in understanding their existing workforce profiles and understanding the associated risks attached to these profiles.
Managing this transformation Scott maintains cannot be solely left to private interests and the market, acknowledging whilst the market can be a powerful force at driving innovation in the ageing space, this doesn’t mean it gets the direction of its innovation correct from a social perspective. The government will have a significant and powerful role in leading and guiding the transformation to a longevity society. In today’s world of government leadership timidity, transactional focus and playing political ‘gotcha games’ believing politicians will be adult enough to champion the change is easily the biggest obstacle needing to be overcome.
Scott argues governments need to realise that ageing isn’t only about the old. Understanding ageing as an event and old age as a state combined with short-term thinking leads governments to a focus on the current rather than the future old. The imperative is for governments to wake up to demographic realities. An ageing society agenda begins when you have lots of people aged over sixty-five. The agenda of a society focused on longevity management begins when you have lots of people expected to live beyond sixty-five.
We know we will have a Federal government focused on institutionalising longevity thinking within Australia when we see:
· A Federal Cabinet Longevity Ministry replacing the existing Health and Aged Care Ministry.
· Federal Budgets focused on developing longevity focused health, education social security and taxation systems supporting a robust economy.
· Increased scientific research investigating the biology of ageing rather than specific diseases.
· The creation and implementation of a national workforce strategy to significantly increase the labour force participation rates of older people, particularly those over 60 years of age.
· An increased use of legislation to eliminate the existence of ageism.
The core of Scott’s premise is that above all else we need to move away from seeing aging as an event and old age as a state. Ageing is a process occurring continuously throughout our life. If a longevity-based society is to come into existence, then persuading the young that ageing is not just for old people becomes a critical awareness creation exercise. Although they may not understand this as a pressing issue in their early years, being aware that ageing doesn’t start at sixty-five is an important insight for them to absorb.
‘The Longevity Imperative’ is a deliberately positive book focused on engaging its readers in understanding the powerful alternative we have to understanding an ageing population as an impending social crisis. It represents another timely intervention in building public awareness of the ageing revolution we are currently experiencing and the choices available to us all if we wish to maximise the personal and public benefit opportunities it offers. Importantly, the book helps us understand we can immediately take personal action to own our individual ageing adventure to potentially maximise a healthy and productive life expectancy. For those in public life or business, the book represents a powerful stimulus for policy debate or strategy setting. I certainly recommend reading the book as a great conversation starter perhaps first around the dinner table and then increasingly in more public forums.
References
Coughlin, J Dr. ‘Is Your Strategy Missing The Gorilla?’ LinkedIn (May 21, 2024) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/your-strategy-missing-gorilla-dr-joe-coughlin-mav1e/?trackingId=zIaNgt0yQFuAgnOc0%2BkD0g%3D%3D
Scott, J, A. (2024). The Longevity Imperative: Building a better Society for Healthier, Longer Lives. Basic Books. UK.
